Dr. Baekwan Park and Dr. Jody Baumgartner have been awarded the Oral Parks Memorial Best Faculty Paper Award for the 2021 North Carolina Political Science Association meeting, for their paper titled “The ‘Veepstakes,’ Social Science Style: A Statistical Model of Vice Presidential Selection In The Modern Era.”
Abstract: Using discrete choice analysis, this paper examines the 24 contested major party vice presidential nominations from 1960 through 2020. The model factors in numerous demographic and political characteristics of the individuals on the presidential nominees’ short lists, including various measures of presidential ticket “balance.” The model identifies exposure in the national media, having served in national political office and bringing either gender or racial/ethnic diversity to the ticket are identified as positive factors in the selection of a presidential running mate, in addition to being younger and not having been a rival for the presidential nomination. Following this the analysis uses predicted probabilities to generate a post hoc forecast of the eventual vice presidential selection from the short list of potential candidates, correctly predicting 18 (75%). In the end the analysis represents a more scientific way than traditional journalistic guesswork to think about the veepstakes.
(The paper has since been published in Presidential Studies Quarterly).