Jody Baumgartner

Every four years the American Political Science Association’s highly visible journal “PS: Political Science and Politics,” published several forecasts (predictions) of the presidential election. Inclusion in this issue of the journal is limited, but Dr. Brad Lockerbie has been one of those included for many election cycles.

His 2020 forecast, titled “Economic Pessimism and Political Punishment in 2020,” is not available.

Please see: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/economic-pessimism-and-political-punishment-in-2020/EB45A538B74A88A6D8B420FF70CE2DB1

Dr. Kassab, with Jonathan Rosen, has a new edited collection which analyzes trends of corruption in countries throughout the Americas. The contributors examine the main actors involved in corruption as well as the linkages between organized…

“For some states in Latin America, corruption is not simply an industry, but rather it is part of the political system. This collection studies the nature of corruption and its recent trends through expert contributions from scholars from the region who have diverse scholarly backgrounds, theoretical orientations, and methodologies. Through case studies of countries throughout the Americas, the contributors analyze the links between corruption and organized crime, the main actors involved in corruption, governmental responses to corruption, and the impact that corruption has on governmental institutions and people’s faith in them.”

At Amazon: https://amzn.to/3kqb3k2

At Publisher’s Site: https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781793627216/Corruption-in-the-Americas

The 13th edition of Prof. Hugh Lee’s Alabama Elder Law, published by Thomson Reuters, will be coming out this December (2020). Continue to watch here for links to the book!

On October 19, Dr. Kassab was part of the expert panel, sponsored by the Florida International University’s School of International and Public Affairs, which discussed the latest developments in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region and what they mean not only for Armenia and Azerbaijan but for the greater area.

See the Video: https://www.facebook.com/fiusipa/videos/342657023625446/

Dr. Francia has been quite busy writing speaking to the media about the 2020 election, as well as the recent passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. His comments have appeared in:

The Charlotte Observer: 

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/rnc-2020/article245377540.html https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article245682065.html)

Local television, WITN and WNCT

https://www.witn.com/2020/09/29/political-expert-says-presidential-debate-unlikely-to-sway-votes/

https://www.witn.com/2020/09/30/president-trump-asked-to-clarify-debate-comments-on-white-supremacy-proud-boys/

https://www.witn.com/2020/09/09/pollsters-discuss-methodology-accuracy-ahead-of-november-elections/

https://www.wnct.com/local-news/local-political-experts-react-to-passing-of-justice-ginsburg/)

The podcast, What the Politics?

https://www.wnct.com/what-the-politics/what-the-politics-ep-2-presidential-debates/

Renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan in and around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region dating to September 27, the worst in many years, has caused hundreds of civilian and military casualties on both sides. While members of the Minsk Group led by the U.S., France, and Russia have called for an end to the violence, other countries, including Turkey and even Iran, have become involved to varying degrees, raising the possibility that the conflict could spiral out of control into a bigger conflagration.

Join Dr. Kassab and an expert panel to discuss these latest developments and what they mean not only for Armenia and Azerbaijan but for the wider region.

See: https://calendar.fiu.edu/event/spiraling_out_of_control_armenia_and_azerbaijan_on_the_brink#.X4mfNFqJJ7c

Please come and join our virtual booth at https://bit.ly/3dwBHF6.

Prof. Hugh Lee has an article coming out this month in the Elder Law Advisory entitled “Nursing Home Liability for COVID Transmission and Death: Proposed and Enacted Federal and State Responses to the Pandemic.”

Dr. Marie Olson Lounsberry, with Frederic Pearson, recently published an article titled “Conflict Settlement and Outcomes of Post‐Cold War International Military Interventions.”

Abstract: Scholars noted a remarkable shift in the pattern and motives of international military intervention with the end of the Cold War, namely toward more multilateral and humanitarian missions, often leading to more negotiated conflict settlement. Yet just twenty years later, counter‐trends had already begun to emerge, with renewed major power competition, more complicated multi‐factional civil wars, and cross‐border insurgent/terrorist networks. Using aggregate intervention data from 1989 to 2006 and case study analysis since 2010, we examine the question of continuity versus change in international security and humanitarian policy, in general, and regarding military intervention and outcomes, in particular. Based on patterns of pro‐ and anti‐government interventions and their effects on conflict duration and outcome, appropriate policy approaches are suggested.

See: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pech.12427

Dr. Peter Francia recently completed the article, “The White Working Class, Union Households, and Trade: Will the Trump Coalition Endure?” for the journal, Society.

Abstract: Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election caught many political experts by surprise. Looking to uncover the reasons for this surprising outcome, social scientists presented several explanations in the election’s aftermath. In this article, I discuss one of these explanations: Trump’s success in winning white working-class voters by an overwhelming margin. I also discuss his success in narrowing the advantage that Democratic presidential candidates typically enjoy with voters in union households. Using data from the 2012 and 2016 National Election Pool (NEP), and the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), the results in this work show that Donald Trump not only won the support of white working class voters and that he was competitive with voters in union households, but that he significantly improved the Republican share of the presidential vote from four years earlier among voters in these two blocs, including in three critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump’s protectionist position on free trade and his opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which differed from previous Republican presidential nominees in recent elections, were especially popular with white working-class voters and those in union households. By expanding previous Republican margins with white working-class voters and by narrowing the Democrats’ typical union household advantage, Trump secured himself victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which ultimately won him the election. Whether or not Trump is able to repeat this in 2020 against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden will likely determine if he is re-elected. Moreover, if the Trump coalition proves enduring, it could well shape presidential elections and their outcomes in years to come.