Dr. Baekwan Park & Dr. Jody Baumgartner have a forthcoming article in Presidential Studies Quarterly examining the dynamics of the selection of vice presidential candidates.
Abstract: This essay updates the small amount of formal research produced in the past 30 years dedicated to explicating the factors which drive the selection of a vice presidential nominee. Numerous demographic and political characteristics of the individuals on the presidential nominees’ short lists, as well as various measures of presidential ticket balance are modeled for the 24 contested major party vice presidential nominations from 1960 through 2020. Discrete choice analysis highlights the idea that the calculus used by presidential nominees to select their running mate has become more complex in the modern era. Years served in national political office, exposure in the national media, bringing either gender or racial/ethnic diversity to the ticket, youth, and not having been a rival for the presidential nomination, are all factors that seem to matter in the selection process. Predicted probabilities generated from the model correctly identify 18 (75%) of the eventual nominees.
